《逆境求存:认识当前衰退 新冠肺炎下的生存法则》

我们难以从结果判读决策的优劣。有时候,好的想法始终失败,错判下的决定却得以成功。这一切看起来都跟直觉唱反调:除了毅力和巧妙的事业构想,运气和随机性对一门成功初企事业,也起了相当重要的角色。新型冠状肺炎病毒带来的疫情,对我们来说是一个很好的启示,提醒我们在商业世界裏,充满著人力不可控制的危机。当前环境充满变数,南丰作坊的一系列网络研讨会,旨在透过提供策略性指引和实用资讯,支援初企社群渡过难关。

向历史借鑑,对我们事业和生活有极大帮助。现在,新型冠状病毒的严重性仍然是未知之数。南丰作坊参考过往30年疫情爆发的情况,认为关键在於疫情会否带来结构性经济问题。肺炎疫情在衰退之初发生,加重对经济和金融市场的打击,预期经济复甦过程,将会比过往的疫情缓慢。要捱得过狂风暴雨,初企应该透过开源节流,为未来12个月的财务审慎性定下优次。

中国/香港投资活动的影响:经济环境比疫情更重要

从投资角度来看,在疫情爆发期间的结构性经济环境,是影响财务状况的主要因素,而非疫情的严重程度。单独来看,疫情的严重程度对财务的衝击是短期的。在大多数情况下,金融市场在疫情首次爆发後的6-12个月内反弹,而财政短缺的原因,大多因为金融市场短暂欠缺流动性。我们借镜沙士:当时疫情爆发为香港和中国的金融市场带来显著破坏;反观,疫情对亚太地区和美国的估值和交易宗数的影响却非常有限。不过,结构性经济下行始终揭示全球经济危机,在全球的所有指标下,投资活动明显受挫。
光是冠状病毒带来的疫情,难以对金融市场製造长期影响。然而,疫情爆发刚好发生在衰退之初,其影响难免跟结构性经济挑战有共通之处。在低迷的环境下,预料企业支出和投资将十分疲弱,初企应準备迎接富挑战性的募资环境。因此,想要在逆境之下生存,关键在於审慎理财,并预留足够空间等待募资及经济环境改善。

对香港零售市场的衝击:影响加剧,复原可能需时更长

零售市场跟金融市场类似,复原需时6-12个月不等,并根据当刻的经济环境而决定复原的速度。香港在疫情爆发前,已经因为2019年发生的社会运动而进入10年来的首次衰退。此外,当前的肺炎疫情导致本地消费者足不出户,他们的外遊计划亦因航班取消而被打乱。在社会运动和疫情双重打击下,香港零售业受到显著影响,当中包括人流下跌、店铺结业,并需要重新思考零售行业的动态。回首当年香港沙士之後的复甦之路,中国政府推出自由行等多项政策,刺激内地旅客来港,带动香港经济快速复原。至於今天的情况,由於缺乏可行的政策支援,加上社会运动拖累社会整体情绪,香港将难以製造动力,推动与沙士当年同样水平的复原速度。从事零售行业的初企,需要顾及复原时期被拖延,并考虑一系列的纾困方法,当中包括:改善当前的零售事业、发展数码业务及探索全新市场。

初企的生存之道

我们展望未来,预视当前的环境对初企和企业的叁大实际影响:首先,围绕募资的潜在挑战,企业需要审慎管理现金流;第二是奢侈品和其他零售行业的溢出效应,衝击以他们为主要客户的B2B初企等领域;第叁,由於中国内地的工厂暂时关闭,导致生产延迟。以下是一些注意事项:

公司想要渡过这次疫情爆发所带来的暴风雨,可循以下3个方向入手:
1)透过财务策划管理现金流;2)实行削减成本的措施;3)集中优化业务。
未来8-12个月,募资将会是烫手山芋,初企不妨考虑申请贷款,维持公司稳健的营运资本。以下是香港政府为本地公司提供的贷款计划:

除了考虑外在的财务支援,在逆境中的公司也适宜采取内部调整措施。以下图表列出过往其他公司采纳过的方向性措施:

整体来说,逆境下的措施可分为削减成本及优化营运两大部分。难关之下,需要审慎管理现金流,而这也是一个很好的机会审视公司的各营运部门,包括人员编制、市场行销和一般行政事宜,并从而寻找调整方向。至於收入和其他营运方面,应设法在过渡时期增加现金收入,比如寻求新的销售机会,或者是新的方法管理库存和应付帐款。更重要的是,艰难时期需要灵活变通,不妨投放时间与团队沟通,凝聚员工士气与其他措施同样重要。

渡过逆境

渡过经济下行和复原时期,是所有事业的必经之路。难关并不易过,但经受难关并再次起步的能力,从来都是建立持久事业的重中之重。前路纵然充满挑战,但我们期待与初企社群和夥伴风雨同路。

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Source
Materials used in the article are sourced from Bloomberg, HK Gov, IMAA, NASDAQ, SCMP